Shavano Music Online

Sales Prediction Tool

Having trouble selling your musical creations?


PREDICTING MUSIC SALES VIA COMPUTER MODELING

Coopers & Lybrand is using a computer modeling software program that uses 50,000 "agents" to predict which music CDs will hit the charts and climb to the top. The 30,000-line program contains information such as age, income level, domicile, gender and buying habits for each imaginary music consumer based on Census Bureau and market research data. After plugging in some parameters for each CD, such as how popular the group is already, the program spits out the answer -- yes, this one will sell, or no, that one's a loser. The program attempts to overcome the shortcomings of straight spreadsheet prognostication, incorporating some of the chaos inherent in human affairs: "There are junctures that are very difficult to describe in mathematical equation," says the project leader. "These are for very low-probability but potentially devastating events -- for example, the rate of takeoff in fads. This program can write these complex equations itself." (Forbes 7 Apr 97)


I prefer the Magic 8 Ball approach:

Instructions:

  1. Enter the Name of Your Song or CD:
  2. Concentrate on Your Question and Click on the 'Ask The Super Computer' button.
  3. See the Results That Technology Provides.
Enter the Song/CD Name:
Will Your Song/CD Be a Big Seller?:
After Extensive Market Analysis:

I suspect that this application may prove just as accurate. Feel Free to quote its results - maybe other Music Execs will listen to this computer expert too.


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